Oil Nears $100 a Barrel as New Tariffs Hit: Energy Stocks Gain, GM and Nike Face Cost Pressure

What the Oil Shock and New Tariffs Changed

President Trump has rolled out a fresh round of tariffs on trading partners at the same moment the United States is at war with Iran and shipping lanes through the Persian Gulf are disrupted. Crude oil has climbed to near $100 a barrel, up sharply from about $70 when the first wave of tariffs landed in April 2025. Economist Carsten Brzeski of ING points out that the global economy is entering this new trade fight from a weaker starting point than last year because of the higher energy bill households and businesses are already paying. For stock investors the combination is not one story but two running at once: a crude price shock and a new round of import taxes, and they hit different companies through different channels.

Why Energy Stocks Are in Focus as Crude Nears $100

ExxonMobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips pump oil and gas out of the ground and sell it at the going market price, so when the benchmark price jumps toward $100 a barrel, the revenue each company collects on every barrel it produces rises with it, even though production volumes have not changed. That is the most direct channel a commodity price move can have on a stock: no new contract, no new customer, just a higher price for the same product. On the other side, automakers and import-heavy retailers face higher costs on parts, materials and finished goods once new tariffs take effect, a cost they either absorb into thinner margins or pass on to buyers who may pull back on spending.

Which Stocks, and Why

Exxon and Chevron are integrated majors, meaning they both pump crude and refine it into fuel. Higher crude prices lift what their upstream, drilling side earns, though it can squeeze the refining side if pump prices do not keep pace with feedstock costs, so the net effect for these two is usually positive but partly cushioned. ConocoPhillips has no refining business to offset the swing, so as a pure exploration-and-production company its profit is more directly tied to the price of crude itself.

On the tariff side, General Motors builds most of its US-sold vehicles domestically but still depends on imported steel, aluminum and electronic components, so a broad tariff round raises input costs across its supply chain even for cars assembled at home, and any retaliatory tariffs from trading partners add a second hit to vehicles GM exports. Nike sources the large majority of its footwear and apparel from factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China, so it has almost no way to route around new import duties in the short run, and every percentage point of tariff lands directly on its cost of goods sold until it can renegotiate with suppliers or adjust retail prices.

What to Watch

Track the daily settlement price for WTI and Brent crude and whether shipping through the Persian Gulf resumes, since that is what determines how long the energy windfall lasts. Watch for the official tariff schedule Washington publishes, including any exemptions carved out for allies, which will show how hard autos and apparel importers are actually hit. Earnings calls from GM and Nike in the coming quarters are the place to look for management's own estimate of the tariff cost, rather than guessing from the headline rate alone.