RBC Lifts Tesla Outlook on Robotaxi Bet, Trims Humanoid Robot View

What RBC's updated model changed

RBC Capital updated its outlook on Tesla, keeping its favorable rating while reshuffling how it values the company's separate businesses. The firm raised the value it assigns to Tesla's robotaxi ambitions by about 20%, calling the self-driving ride business Tesla's most robust opportunity against what it estimates is a $4.2 trillion addressable market for autonomous ride-hailing over time.

At the same time, RBC cut its valuation of Tesla's humanoid robot project by around 40%, after revising its assumption for how much of the US humanoid robot market Tesla will eventually capture down to about 20% from an earlier 50% estimate. It also lowered its valuation of Tesla's energy storage business by roughly 30%, citing a smaller global market and more competition than previously assumed. Separately, RBC ran a scenario modeling what its numbers would look like if Tesla were to acquire SpaceX, Elon Musk's rocket and satellite company, a possibility RBC stressed remains speculative rather than an announced deal.

Why it matters for Tesla's multiple businesses

Tesla now trades on more than just car sales. Investors increasingly price in future revenue from self-driving robotaxis, humanoid robots and battery storage alongside the core vehicle business, so how analysts split value between those pieces matters for how the stock is judged. RBC's changes show growing confidence in the near-term commercial path for robotaxis, where Tesla already has limited paid rides running, alongside more caution about humanoid robots and energy storage, both of which face larger, more established competitors and longer timelines before they generate meaningful revenue.

Which stocks, and why

The direct effect is on Tesla. The net change in RBC's outlook is a step up, driven mainly by the robotaxi reassessment, but the underlying detail is mixed rather than uniformly bullish. Vehicle deliveries and margins remain the biggest swing factor for Tesla's actual quarterly results, and none of the newer businesses, robotaxi, humanoid robots or energy storage, yet contributes meaningful revenue on its own. The SpaceX scenario RBC modeled is not a real transaction and should be read as an illustrative exercise rather than something Tesla has confirmed or is pursuing.

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What to watch

The clearest test of RBC's robotaxi optimism will be how quickly Tesla expands its paid self-driving ride service beyond its current limited markets and whether it can do so without safety incidents that could slow regulatory approval. For humanoid robots, watch for any update on Optimus production timelines and unit costs. For energy storage, quarterly deployment figures will show whether competition is actually squeezing Tesla's market share the way RBC now assumes.